Philip E. Tetlock Quotes & Sayings

For scientists, not knowing is exciting. It's an opportunity to discover; the more that is unknown, the greater the opportunity. — Philip E. Tetlock

So finding meaning in events is positively correlated with wellbeing but negatively correlated with foresight. — Philip E. Tetlock

The Yale professor Dan Kahan has done much research showing that our judgments about risks - Does gun control make us safer or put us in danger? - are driven less by a careful weighing of evidence than by our identities, which is why people's views on gun control often correlate with their views on climate change, even though the two issues have no logical connection to each other. Psycho-logic trumps logic. And when Kahan asks people who feel strongly that gun control increases risk, or diminishes it, to imagine conclusive evidence that shows they are wrong, and then asks if they would change their position if that evidence were handed to them, they typically say no. That belief block is holding up a lot of others. Take it out and you risk chaos, so many people refuse to even imagine it. — Philip E. Tetlock

produce forecast-wrecking — Philip E. Tetlock