Famous Quotes & Sayings

Hersh Shefrin Quotes & Sayings

Enjoy the top 3 famous quotes, sayings and quotations by Hersh Shefrin.

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Famous Quotes By Hersh Shefrin

Hersh Shefrin Quotes 1401824

Imagine 100 book bags, each of which contains 1,000 poker chips. Forty-five bags contain 700 black chips and 300 red chips. The other 55 bags contain 300 black chips and 700 red chips. You cannot see inside any of the bags. One of the bags is selected at random by means of a coin toss. Consider the following two questions about the selected book bag. 1. What probability would you assign to the event that the selected bag contains predominantly black chips? 2. Now imagine that 12 chips are drawn, with replacement, from the selected bag. These twelve draws produce 8 blacks and 4 reds. Would you use the new information about the drawing of chips to revise your probability that the selected bag contains predominantly black chips? If so, what new probability would you assign? — Hersh Shefrin

Hersh Shefrin Quotes 1046197

Reality looks much more obvious in hindsight than in foresight. People who experience hindsight bias misapply current hindsight to past foresight. They perceive events that occurred to have been more predictable before the fact than was actually the case. — Hersh Shefrin

Hersh Shefrin Quotes 1821328

Having a financial adviser enables the investor to carry a psychological call option. If the investment decision turns out well, the investor takes the credit, and if it turns out badly, the regret can be lowered by blaming the adviser. — Hersh Shefrin